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Employment reconciliation and nowcasting (replication data)
We construct a latent employment estimate for the U.S. which both reconciles the information from separate payroll and household surveys, and incorporates the preliminary data... -
Dynamic shrinkage in time‐varying parameter stochastic volatility in mean mod...
Successful forecasting models strike a balance between parsimony and flexibility. This is often achieved by employing suitable shrinkage priors that penalize model complexity... -
Reassessing the Relative Power of the Yield Spread in Forecasting Recessions ...
In this paper, we replicate the main results of previous research showing that the use of the yield spread in a probit model can predict recessions better than the Survey of...
