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Belief shocks and implications of expectations about growth-at-risk (replicat...
Replication files for 'Belief Shocks and Implications of Expectations about Growth-at-Risk" in the Journal of Applied Econometrics by Maximilian Boeck and Michael Pfarrhofer.... -
No‐arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interes...
We use a Bayesian vector autoregression with stochastic volatility to forecast government bond yields. We form the conjugate prior from a no-arbitrage affine term structure...
