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Modelling volatility cycles: the MF2-GARCH model (replication data)
We propose a novel multiplicative factor multi-frequency GARCH (MF2-GARCH) model, which exploits the empirical fact that the daily standardized forecast errors of one-component... -
Tracking Economic Activity With Alternative High-Frequency Data (replication ...
This data package contains the replication data files data_ch.Rda and data_ch.xlsx related to the Journal of Applied Econometrics article titled Tracking Economic Activity With... -
Specification choices in quantile regression for empirical macroeconomics (re...
Data and computer programs used to produce the results in Andrea Carriero, Todd E. Clark, and Massimiliano Marcellino, "Specification Choices in Quantile Regression for... -
Exploiting news analytics for volatility forecasting: replication data
Data and replication information for "Exploiting news analytics for volatility forecasting" by Simon Tranberg Bodilsen and Asger Lunde; published in Journal of Applied... -
Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility: Re-examinatio...
Data and replication information for "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility: Re-examination and extension" by Akram Hasanov, Robert Brooks, Aktam... -
Fast and order-invariant inference in Bayesian VARs with non-parametric shock...
The shocks which hit macroeconomic models such as Vector Autoregressions (VARs) have the potential to be non-Gaussian, exhibiting asymmetries and fat tails. This consideration... -
Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data (...
This entry contains information about the data used in our analysis. The debit card transaction data that we use are confidential and cannot be made publicly available.... -
Tests for equal forecast accuracy under heteroskedasticity (replication data)
This archive contains the replication files for "Tests for equal forecast accuracy under heteroskedasticity" by David Harvey, Stephen Leybourne and Yang Zu, in Journal of... -
The benefits of forecasting inflation with machine learning: New evidence (re...
This is the replication package for "The benefits of forecasting inflation with machine learning: New evidence" by A. Naghi, E. O'Neill, and M. Zaharieva, Journal of Applied... -
Nonlinearities in macroeconomic tail risk through the lens of big data quanti...
Modeling and predicting extreme movements in GDP is notoriously difficult and the selection of appropriate covariates and/or possible forms of nonlinearities are key in... -
Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression (replicati...
Replication materials for "Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression" by S. Chavleishvili and S. Manganelli, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2023,... -
Reassessing growth vulnerability (replication data)
This paper replicates the results of Adrian et al. (2019) that GDP growth volatility is mainly driven by the lower quantiles of the distribution which is predicted by the... -
Heterogeneous responses to corporate marginal tax rates: Evidence from small ...
Do small and large firms respond differently to tax cuts? Using new narrative measures of the exogenous variation in corporate marginal tax rates and a unique dataset of U.S.... -
Employment reconciliation and nowcasting (replication data)
We construct a latent employment estimate for the U.S. which both reconciles the information from separate payroll and household surveys, and incorporates the preliminary data... -
Exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals (replication data)
We examine the relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals using a two-step maximum likelihood estimator through which we compute time-varying factor... -
US Weekly Economic Index: Replication and extension (replication data)
Replication materials for "US Weekly Economic Index: Replication and extension", by Philipp Wegmueller and Christian Glocker, Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming. -
Nowcasting from cross-sectionally dependent panels (replication data)
This archive contains the replication files. All codes and data are provided. There are three folders corresponding to the simulation study and two empirical applications of the... -
Subspace shrinkage in conjugate Bayesian vector autoregressions (replication ...
For the empirical exercise we use quarterly macroeconomic data for the US, obtained from the FRED-QD database (https://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/mccracken/fred-databases/).... -
Testing Investment Forecast Efficiency with Forecasting Narratives
I analyze the narratives that accompany business cycle forecasting reports of three German institutes using topic models. To this end, I gather multiple similar topics into... -
Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models fo...
In this paper we investigate whether differences exist among forecasts using real-time or latest-available data to predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ...
